February 27, 2023
As the month of February comes to an end this week, the D3 college men’s volleyball landscape is beginning to become a bit clearer. It has been a season like no other for 2023 with parity becoming the new reality at the D3 level.
With the new IH rankings issued today, the top 6 teams are within one rating point. Vassar pulls in the #1 slot for the second week in a row in the computer rankings with just one loss to #2 Stevens over 14 matches. The UVC has been the outstanding division this season with six team in the IH top 15. The MAC has two teams in the top 6 and CVA has 4 teams in the top 20.
Vassar came through the week at 2-0 with wins over St. John Fisher and Nazareth, solidifying their #1 ranking but their margin over #2 Stevens shrunk to just .09 rating points. In our rating system, a rating of 25.0 will always be the rating for the #1 team each week. If any team plays the #1 team, their rating will represent the overall difference per set on average. Vassar, Stevens, and Springfield are in a virtual dead-heat for the top spot. Stevens and Springfield were both 3-0 last week with Stevens getting a signature win over Juniata in straight sets on Sunday and Springfield running the table for the week as well.
Juniata, Carthage, and Messiah hold rankings 4-6. Messiah and Carthage were undefeated for the week with Messiah rolling in 4 new victories after a stellar performance at the Eastern Mennonite tournament where they knocked off Southern Virginia and Randolph Macon. Carthage won their only game of the week over Concordia-Wisconsin.
In the top 25, we saw multiple win weeks for North Central, Marymount, SUNY-New Paltz, Loras, and Baldwin Wallace. 17-0 King’s College also added 2 more wins as they enter the IH Top 25 for the first time. We will get a much better understanding on King’s ability to stay near the top based on their schedule this week as they take on SVU and Lancaster Bible followed by Stevens and Messiah the next week. King’s has yet to beat a ranked team but the computer algorithm is favoring them as a top 25 despite the weaker schedule strength.
NYU, Nazareth, St. John Fisher, SUNY-New Paltz, and Elmira are in for a dog fight in the UVC as they battle for the second slot in the division behind Vassar. Elmira is one of the surprise teams that have been super fun to watch these past few weeks. Their win over NYU showed off their many talents.
March will lay the groundwork for the conference playoff seedings and eventual entry into the NCAA championship tournament. Here are our early predictions in a very unpredictable season for the seeds and playoff landscape:
AMCC- Penn State Behrend has been the most consistent team in the AMCC but their loss to Penn State Altoona was quite a surprise. Thiel and Geneva have had great starts in conference play thus far sporting a 5-1 and 5-0 record respectively. St. Vincent is an outlier at #4. Behrend’s holds a 4 rating point advantage currently so we favor them to advance to the tourney.
CCIW- Carthage has to be the favorite to win the year end tournament despite outstanding performances this year from both North Central and Loras. North Park took Carthage to 5 sets recently so it certainly is a very competitive division. We expect the defending champs will spark the pedigree to another successful tourney win.
The CVC has been dominated thus far by #4 Juniata. Marymount and Southern Virginia are both in the top 15 and could pull an upset come tourney time. If Rutgers can get healthy, they may present some stiffer competition at year end. But for now, Juniata is the clear favorite.
The CUNY is certainly one of the conferences that continues to improve over time. Baruch represented the conference well last season despite an early exit from the NCAA tournament. CCNY has the higher rating currently but watch for Baruch to gear up for their conference schedule and dominate the league.
GNAC: Wentworth has dealt with injuries this season as well but seem on track again winning 4 games in a row. They are already 6-0 in the conference and will most likely be the top seed in the division. Lasell and Emmanuel have had solid seasons but the talent level on Wentworth is just too much to handle.
The MAC has two of the top 6 teams in the country in #1 Stevens and #6 Messiah. With a combined record of 32-4, we project both teams will be in the year end festivities. We expect these two to match up in the conference finals with the winner advancing and the loser retaining an at-large bid.
Nichols has had an outstanding season in the NECC and we project they will come out with a division crown with best record and tournament win. Eastern Nazarene and SUNY Potsdam are more than 3.5 rating points behind, which we estimate only gives them less than a 10% chance of upset.
MCVL: Both Baldwin Wallace and Mount Union have had stellar seasons thus far. Wittenberg has also shown promise with some big wins. Any of these three teams have a good shot at bringing home a tournament win. But for now, we will go with the Yellow Jackets of Baldwin Wallace to prevail.
NACC: Benedictine may have 6 losses but they have all been to top ranked teams. Their win over SUNY-New Paltz is a clear indication they can play at a high level. Dominican has fallen back a bit this year and MSOE does not appear to have the firepower to win the conference.
Skyline: St. Joe’s Long Island is a clear favorite with almost a 3 rating point advantage currently. NJCU and Ramapo are talented teams that can make a run but we expect the Golden Eagles to fly in the tournament.
UVC: What a standout conference this season with Vassar leading the way. You could see three bids coming from this conference and its anyone’s guess which teams will rise to the top right now. We are projecting Vassar to get one slot and will give NYU and St. John Fisher to both get at-large bids.
Others: Springfield remains a lock to get an at-large bid as an independent. That leaves just one additional slot for the last at-large bid. We see the following teams in the hunt…
North Central, Southern Virginia, UC Santa Cruz, Nazareth, SUNY-New Paltz, Loras.
As much as we would like to honor the great season so far by the Banana Slugs, we do expect the traditional programs to get recognized when it comes to the final bids. This will favor North Central and SUNY-New Paltz. For now, we will project NC getting the last spot.