Mens D3 Volleyball Schedule Strength Analysis

As we comb through our analysis and rating algorithms, we pause today to take a deeper look at schedule strength and what it may tell us about the over capabilities of D3 volleyball teams throughout the country. We have ranked all teams by schedule strength through games of 3/2/23. Our analysis is below:

Schedule Strength Factor Rankings

So what does this analysis tell us about the teams presented? There are certain teams like Stevens, Carthage and NYU that have played a very high caliber of opponents and have a high overall win percentage against those teams. Those teams along with Vassar, St. John Fisher, Springfield, Messiah, Nazareth, and Juniata have played very tough schedules, performed well, and are in the top of the IH rankings.

There are a number of schools that are hanging tough against formidable opponents but may be under the radar as far as a top 15 presence in the rankings. Let’s take a look at some of these underappreciated teams:

Aurora is first up on our review. They are currently ranked #2 in SSF (Schedule strength factor) in our algorithm. Their 2-9 record at first glance gives the appearance that they may not be able to compete with top level teams. But a deeper look shows them taking two sets from top-rated NYU, single sets from Messiah and Juniata, and very competitive three set match losses to Carthage, Loras, and Stevens. Almost all of their losses have come to top 20 ranked teams. Aurora has defeated North Central this season as well as North Park. With most of the NACC schedule in front of them, let’s not be surprised if this team performs very well against NACC rivals and has a winning record in the conference.

Rutgers-Newark slips in as #3 in schedule strength in the country. The Scarlet Raiders are 6-5 overall after dumping Top 10 rated SUNY New Paltz this week. Their losses are to Stevens, Messiah, NYU, Lasell, and Marymount, 4 of which are in the top 15. They took a set from Stevens and NYU, and also took Messiah to 5 sets at Messiah. The CVC may not be as high rated as the UVC this season, but we expect RUN to be alive and well come conference tournament time and, if they ever get healthy, will compete with Juniata and SVU.

Dominican comes in at the #5 schedule strength slot in the country thus far. The Stars have had a down season compared to the last few years and have had a very rough start at 2-6. After losing their first three games to SUNY-New Paltz, North Central, and Fontbonne, they have shown some good signs beating Wittenberg and Illinois Wesleyan and taking Loras to 5 sets. It will be interesting to see if they can ramp up some momentum before hosting rival Carthage on March 23.

Stevenson has struggled this season and is another team that has dealt with injuries to key players. The 5-11 record is anything but impressive and has earned them a truly mediocre IH ranking of #56 in the country overall. They have experienced some tough losses to Mount Union, Loras, Marymount, Juniata, Lancaster Bible, New Paltz, MIT, and Vassar to name a few. They have taken sets from very good teams and recently defeated Randolph Macon in 4 sets. IH believes they will perform well against their MAC schedule starting next week. And could slot in as a clear #3 in the conference behind Stevens and Messiah.

And lastly for now, let’s take a look at the ups and downs at Concordia Wisconsin. This squad jumped out to a 5-0 record early and then experienced 5 losses in a row. Thus far they have lost to Mount Union, UC Santa Cruz, North Central, Loras, and Carthage, taking sets from Loras and UCSC and two sets from Mount Union. IH has them raked at #50 overall but they certainly have potential to be must better than that come our end of year ranking.

Now we will take a look at some teams that have rode an easy schedule and have some of the lower schedule strength factors in the country despite some higher rankings:

King’s College PA has enjoyed an undefeated season thus far in 2023. They are not 5-0 or 8-0, but they have strung together a very impressive 17 straight victories. However, the Monarchs currently have the #96 schedule strength in the country per our analysis. The highest ranked team they have beaten has been NJCU from the Skyline conference, who took them to 5 sets. Saturday, they will face Southern Virginia and Lancaster Bible in a tri-match, and then face Messiah, Stevens, and Stevenson the next week as their MAC schedule continues. IH would be shocked if they are not 17-5 on 3/18 but hope they can prove us wrong.

Kean is off to a great start at 9-5 and will soon be ramping up their CVC conference schedule. The Cougars have a nice mix of talented freshman that have played well so far this season and we expect them to continue to improve their level of play throughout the season. But they have played a light schedule thus far according to the analysis. Misericordia is probably their best win and they already have losses to Ramapo, Baruch, and NJCU. IH believes they will struggle against tougher opponents in the CVC but will probably end the year with a winning record based on the strength of their remaining schedule.

IH has Loras at #23 overall in the country as of our 2/28/23 ranking update. The Duhawks are enjoying a great season and sit at 12-1 on the season. Per our schedule strength analysis, they are ranked #56 in the country indicating a much weaker schedule than the top teams in the country. Their next few games will be telling and we will see if they can rise up against some of the country’s best D3 teams. They face North Central, Carthage, and North Park in the next week. Despite only having one loss, IH expects they could be 12-4 by next Sunday.

Baldwin Wallace is another team that is off to a great campaign for 2023. The 15-3 Yellow Jackets have earned the #24 overall ranking in the latest IH update. They have some signature wins in their collection for the season having beat Loras, Randolph Macon, and Penn State Behrend. Our analysis does show them with an overall light schedule and despite flying high with the best overall record in MCVL, they may experience some turbulence once conference play starts. Mount Union, Wittenberg, and Fontbonne all have had tougher schedules per our analysis which should present some tight conference matches and hopefully not a crash and burn for the Yellow Jackets post season hopes.

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