February 18, 2024
In a perfect ranking world, each team reflected in the team recap report, would have losses to teams rated higher than them and wins against teams rated lower than them. For us, that is the holy grail of ranking. As you review the team recaps, you will see a distinct pattern showing losses on the top section to higher ranked teams and wins against lower ranked teams. And of course, there are aberration matches that just stick out where lower ranked teams have flipped the script with big upsets. The math has a hard time interpreting these matches but it’s all part of playing the games. Let’s list some of these for 2024.
There have been three major games that remain unexplained according to the algorithm. The results of these matches defy the ranking logic. Some call them upsets. For us they are data discrepancies. But they are very indicative of playing college sports, especially volleyball, where momentum can carry a team to set wins like no other sport. But this is why the games are not played on paper. Were there other underlying things that contributed to these results? Maybe. Travel challenges, injuries, missing players, who has the flu, local rivalries, and hundreds of other factors may have contributed. But let’s look at the top three “Upsets” of the year so far, at least based on the ranking algorithm.
#3 Buffalo State defeating UC Santa Cruz: Buffalo State has had a really top shelf first year of their program. Hosting a tournament that included UCSC and St. John Fisher seemed forward-thinking to us for a first-year team, but the Bengals were playing out of their minds. We got to watch the last two sets on live stream and what we saw was this… passion, excitement, wild fans, high energy… all the makings that enable an upset environment. We also saw the Bengals step up into the moment and play a high level of volleyball with little mistakes and dramatic moments of big blocks, monster kills, and acrobatic digs. UCSC has played one of the toughest schedules all season and they may have been looking ahead to their match with top 5 ranked St. John Fisher. But the Bengals looked like the better team for that moment in time. They may lose 9 out of 10 matches played against the Banana Slugs but not that day. It was a memorable moment for Buffalo State players, coaches, and fans. And also an inspiration for all members of the volleyball community to drive home the “any given day” and “never say die” mentality.
#2 Arcadia beating Cal Lutheran: The Kingsmen were cruising early in the season, taking on all takers and being extremely successful. They came out of the gate as a top 5 team and were nailing top teams at D3 including Carthage, UCSC, Vassar, NYU and Dominican. They were taking on higher level teams like Cal-Northridge and competing. Cal Lutheran was brought back to earth a little bit when Loras stepped up and beat them just before January ended, showing just how good the DuHawks are this season. The early February trip to Pennsylvania seemed like a chance to add 4 wins to the season resume for Cal Lutheran. The trip started as planned with a big sweep of Messiah on Thursday night and then the same success against Widener on Friday night. A Saturday morning match at 11AM EST/8AM PST may have been too much to ask. The Kingsmen were up very early for their usual time zone, and it showed against an Arcadia team that was trying to show they could compete in the MAC. Cal Lutheran was worn down by set 5 and let this one slip away. Taking nothing away from the home team Arcadia who stepped up and got amazing performances from key players to succeed. A hallmark game for their season thus far. But you never know what can happen with college kids in early AM matches. That’s why most don’t schedule 8AM classes (or 9AM or 10AM or 11AM).
#1 Baruch downing NYU: NYU has shown signs of being an elite team this season. They already have wins against Carthage, UC Santa Cruz, SJLI, and Hunter. They gave Cal Lutheran a close match, not so much with Stevens and Springfield. Baruch played Wentworth very close, took a set from Stevens and Nichols, got swept by Emmanuel and Endicott and had a lackluster win against Brooklyn College. They appear to be a team that rises up to the level of their competition or lower to the level of their competition as well. Their 18-16 win in set 5 against the Violets definitely had a battle of NYC tone to it. The match could not have been closer. All the sets were separated by 2 points, 4 going to extra time, and the final of 18-16 was awesome to watch. Baruch remains a team to be reckoned with and we expect them to rise up the rest of the season and give Hunter a run for their money for conference honors. Their 16.35 rating could certainly be improved upon depending on which Bearcat team shows up.
There were certainly other games that carry the same characteristics as explained above. Lakeland beating Trine, Lasell beating Vassar, North Park beating Edgewood, Sage beating Regis, Saint Vincent beating Lees-McRae, and Adrian beating Wabash all have upset connotations.
We love looking at the team recaps to get a better picture of just how good the ranking algorithm is and where these data blips stick out. Although the search for the perfect season ranking, the Holy Grail as referred to before, will never happen, we expect our algorithm to get it as close as mathematically possible.
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