One thought on “Latest Data on NCAA D3 Championship Tournament Qualifiers”
What I wrote ad nauseum last season on Frog Jump – The NPI is systematically biased against the Midwest! The last one “in” was Loras this year, & the first two out were Illinois Wesleyan and Aurora? (Loras in the tournament this year according to the NPI, even though they lost all 3 matches to IW by cumulative set scores of 9-2, I believe…) And that is only because there were 7 at-large bids this year! With at least two more conferences that I know of coming next year, can we really expect there to still be 7 at-large bids, then? Randolph Macon & Endicott are not likely in the realm of Loras, IW, or Dominican. (Maybe not Aurora or MSOE, either?) The NPI thinks they are, though! Reminder: Loras was first out last year (’25), and though the committee suggested that Fisher was the first out the year before (’24), all metrics pointed to Carthage. And if anything, I should be personally biased on behalf of Fisher in that year! LOL
If I am about the 12th best team in America and there is an outside-chance I might not win my conference final, I could schedule 25 teams ranked on the bottom half of the table below and guarantee my 23-2 record against those would have enough NPI leverage to get an at-large. Kind of like if I am Hobart playing in the AMCC and Buff St is a reasonable threat in ’27. (Or Wentworth & Lasell in NE, too) – The issue isn’t so much that the system is flawed across regions (It is!) or that it can be mildly gamed by those who think they are cute (It can!). It is that a really good system needs to make the reward for playing and defeating your equal at least as good as the risk for the penalty of playing your equal and losing. The NPI doesn’t accomplish that! Numerical incentivization to play a team whose rank is 15 to 20 spots weaker than yourself is a poor recipe for the long-term health of good decision-making regarding who gets the opportunity to be in a National tournament.
Some will say how MIT’s win today cost IW a spot in this year’s tournament, but they would only be correct by the letter of the law, certainly not by the spirit of it!
Based on the table of NPI Progression over the last month linked below:
What I wrote ad nauseum last season on Frog Jump – The NPI is systematically biased against the Midwest! The last one “in” was Loras this year, & the first two out were Illinois Wesleyan and Aurora? (Loras in the tournament this year according to the NPI, even though they lost all 3 matches to IW by cumulative set scores of 9-2, I believe…) And that is only because there were 7 at-large bids this year! With at least two more conferences that I know of coming next year, can we really expect there to still be 7 at-large bids, then? Randolph Macon & Endicott are not likely in the realm of Loras, IW, or Dominican. (Maybe not Aurora or MSOE, either?) The NPI thinks they are, though! Reminder: Loras was first out last year (’25), and though the committee suggested that Fisher was the first out the year before (’24), all metrics pointed to Carthage. And if anything, I should be personally biased on behalf of Fisher in that year! LOL
If I am about the 12th best team in America and there is an outside-chance I might not win my conference final, I could schedule 25 teams ranked on the bottom half of the table below and guarantee my 23-2 record against those would have enough NPI leverage to get an at-large. Kind of like if I am Hobart playing in the AMCC and Buff St is a reasonable threat in ’27. (Or Wentworth & Lasell in NE, too) – The issue isn’t so much that the system is flawed across regions (It is!) or that it can be mildly gamed by those who think they are cute (It can!). It is that a really good system needs to make the reward for playing and defeating your equal at least as good as the risk for the penalty of playing your equal and losing. The NPI doesn’t accomplish that! Numerical incentivization to play a team whose rank is 15 to 20 spots weaker than yourself is a poor recipe for the long-term health of good decision-making regarding who gets the opportunity to be in a National tournament.
Some will say how MIT’s win today cost IW a spot in this year’s tournament, but they would only be correct by the letter of the law, certainly not by the spirit of it!
Based on the table of NPI Progression over the last month linked below:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AnJUjiuLpV2tZWoUgJahJszvqFCYL2mK/view?usp=sharing