March 2, 2022
With the volleyball schedules nearing midway for the season, we have plenty of information in our database and algorithm to make some comments on teams at all levels. We hope to share these insights a few times per week as we move through March and into the playoff season in April.
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We have had great success with the college volleyball landscape with our ranking algorithm. We remain at approximately 91% win percentage based on applying our rating system to every game on the schedule this season. Each rating point represents a point per set in a forecasted game. Thus a team with a 28.50 rating who plays a team with a 22.50 rating is expected to win each set by 6 points on average. This point system allows us to forecast game scores and also projects the amount of sets per match will be played. You will also note that some teams rating is much higher than 25 and lower than zero in some cases. This suggests that if a team like Long Beach (D1) played Pratt (D3), that the results of each set would be greater than 25-0, which is not possible. But it works for vast majority of all games scheduled.
Each night, we enter game scores from the schedule and the rating system self-adjusts based on the results. The components of our proprietary ranking algorithm factors in schedule strength, point differential, recent trends, and numerous other factors that get weighed in the formula. Despite an inherently flawed approach as we only use math and past performance as a guide, the algorithm is surprisingly accurate. We do not factor in injuries, which players are starting or playing, or which players may be hot or not. It’s all math based and thus totally unbiased.
Judging from our site traffic, we are seeing the most visitors coming to see us for D3 content, so we will start there.
The D3 landscape has been extremely competitive this season and boasts the only undefeated team in the country (now that Springfield lost last night to Lasell) in North Central of Illinois. One would think that North Central would be a clear #1 team in the D3 ranks so of course we have them at #6. Sarcasm aside, as we evaluate many of the teams individual resumes this season, we use schedule strength as one of the main components of our algorithm. And teams like North Central, Carthage, and Dominican have not had as robust a level of competition as say Vassar, Rutgers, Stevenson or Stevens. Here is the top 10 D3 teams with highest schedule strength per our algorithm:
So this can put some teams in notice that if they are playing teams with a high SSF, that they need to be prepared. Stevenson surprised Rutgers last week despite being at 7-6 and facing a team that was 11-1. It also may explain why we have Stevenson much higher in our rankings than the AVCA coaches rank. The Midwest region is not getting a considerable amount of attention based on the math. Carthage, Dominican, and North Central all have schedule strength factors of around 18-19. Which is 2-3 points per set less than Springfield, Vassar or other top 10 teams. We may be proven wrong that the Midwest programs are much stronger than anticipated, especially when you look at the talent levels of the teams and watch them play. But the math is not supporting that at this point in the season.
Teams like Stevenson and Lasell have moved up in our system considerably with their upset wins this past week. Lasell dropping Springfield was unexpected but Lasell did have an SSF over 19, a win differential of +3/set and had won 8 in a row including a nice win over Wentworth. After the first week of the season, Lasell has been 11-1 with their only loss coming to D1 Sacred Heart. They are a team to watch for sure going forward.
Another team to watch at the D3 level is SUNY New Paltz. They were one of the best teams in February going 9-0 and losing just two sets. They have come on with a vengeance after dropping three early season matches. The Hawks have 2 tough assignments coming up with Rutgers on Saturday and Springfield next week.
Some of the other teams at the D3 level that are the hottest over these past few weeks are North Central, Messiah, Juniata, Carthage, Dominican, Eastern Nazarene, Loras, and Rutgers. Marymount has just one loss on the year and leads the division in point differential per set.
On the D1/D2 landscape, all of the tops teams are tightly bunched in the ratings. Only three teams have not lost a match since our February 2nd ranking. They are Hawaii, Penn State, and Daemen. Ball State, UCSB, Loyola Chicago, and North Greenville have been the hottest over the last three week stretch.
UCLA, Long Beach, and Hawaii are within a rating point at the top followed closely behind but a strong group who are candidates for the top spot. USC, Ball State, Penn State, and UC Santa Barbara hold the 4-7 slots and Pepperdine, Grand Canyon, and UC Sand Diego round out the top 10. Lewis, McKendree, and Lincoln Memorial have been the cream of the crop at the D2 level this season and are currently positioned as #11, #12, and #13 in the country per our formula.
BYU has been an interesting team to follow this season. They have been playing super competitive volleyball against some top teams but are on a 7 game losing streak. They remain a top 20 team despite the loss streak. Their next 6 matches are back-to-backs with USC, Concordia Irvine, and Pepperdine so it’s going to be a tough road to get back on track.
The algorithm has loved both Hawaii and Ball State thus far this season. Both teams are ranked higher by us than most of the major pollsters.
In the NAIA, Grand View has risen to the top with Vanguard, Menlo, and William Penn in a tight pack at the apex. Saint Xavier and Ottawa Arizona have been two of the hottest teams at the level with both teams undefeated since 2/6. Some of the other hot teams over the past few weeks have been Simpson, Missouri Baptist, Life, Grand View, William Penn, Judson, and Lourdes.
Indiana Tech holds the best record in the division at 17-1 but has only earned a #11 rating by the algorithm, fueled by a lower strength of schedule. They will be an interesting team to watch. Goshen tonight and Jamestown this weekend will be nice tests for them and give them a chance to move up with wins.
Here are the top NAIA teams rated by schedule strength:
You can view many more stats on details at the following links…
Article on Data Points for the 2022 season
Top Games for the week with video links