March 11, 2024
InsideHitter.com uses a math algorithm to rank D3 Men’s Volleyball Teams.
InsideHitter.com uses a math algorithm to rank D3 Men’s Volleyball Players.
Do the 2 algorithm’s correlate?
That will be up to you to judge based on the analysis below…
To determine just how these 2 rankings, team and individual, were going to mesh together, we developed a simple (ok maybe a little complex) way to measure the results. We put our individual player rankings by team and categorized the top 6 players on each team. We took the ratings of the top 6 players, added them together, and developed a ranking by team of that factor. Then we did the same calculation and process for the top 5 players on each team. And the top 4 and top 3. And even the top 2 and top 1. We then took those rankings, averaged them, and made on new ranking based on the results.
The hypothesis is that the team with the best rated players on average will make up the best teams in the country. To prove the hypothesis, we would need to find a tight correlation between the actual team rankings based on record, strength of schedule, point differential per set, and numerous other statistical and “math” related factors and the analysis below. Although some of the data is aligned, statistically speaking, the correlation is underwhelming.
What other factors are we not considering? Teamwork, momentum, coaching? Probably all of these play a part. Passion, perseverance, emotion, and various “non-math” factors can be overwhelming and outweigh the math. This is why we don’t play the matches on paper. And the same certainly applies to our ranking system.
Our analogy can be made with music. We can all listen to music at home and form our opinions on whether one song is better than another. Then something weird happens. We go to a concert! And the music becomes something else to us. The physicality of the performance… the emotion of the performers… the sounds that vibrate through our soul. It’s a different experience and we have different views about that song when we hear it next. Volleyball is not different. We can put together our analysis on which team we think is best. We can watch live feeds and comb through data to support our arguments. But when you get to see a live tournament, especially a conference tournament or NCAA Championship tournament, you morph into another state of mind. The sound of a big block or hit, the crowd and fan involvement, the player acrobatics, force, and strength, and the pure spectacle of the event as it unfolds before you can stir emotions that you didn’t think existed. Will anyone care that one team is .26 better in rating points or ranked 6 slots higher. Not a chance. You will be lost and carried away by the excitement. The way it should be.
What do you think? Comment or email us at insidehitter@gmail.com.