April 14, 2024
NYU drops Vassar on the Brewer’s home court to punch the last automatic ticket to the show. In our opinion, this leaves three viable teams for consideration for the remaining 2 spots. Carthage is in the best position to take a ticket, Vassar is next, and Juniata is third. The Vassar loss pretty much eliminated St. John Fisher and will probably oust Juniata from the NCAA tourney.
Our update below assumes that the three independent bids will go to Nichols, Cal Lutheran, and Springfield. UC Santa Cruz is the outlier for the 3 available independent bids.
What do you think? The bid selection show happens tomorrow. Do you have a different scenario?
Bids and Regional Predictions below:
Do you just ignore Juniata defeated Carthage 3-1 on 2/1/24 because the metrics say Carthage and Vassar are a smidge stronger, now? Usually the NCAA doesn’t operate this way, but in this case, it would be both bold and just for them to consider going down that road. News Flash, Fisher was gone no matter what happened today, and everybody over here knew it. Juniata must have been rejoicing when NYU and Naz defeated Fisher only to feel a gut punch when NYU just beat Vassar today! We shall see!
Trying not to ignore anything Eric. Our algorithm uses points differential as a major factor. The Juniata vs. Carthage was a push from our side as total points were equal for the match, despite the 3-1 Juniata win. If you look at our ratings, 6-9 are all the teams in questions with just a fraction of rating points differential between any of the teams. Carthage, Vassar, Juniata, and SJF. All deserving teams compared to other auto-bids. But if we had to pick just 2, Carthage and Vassar get the nod. All the best.