December 13, 2024
Lots of chatter these days about how the D3 men’s volleyball playoff landscape will be shaken up as result of recent NCAA decisions to use the NPI ranking formula to determine playoff bids. We knew the numbers of teams eligible to participate in the 2025 tournament was increasing to 19. But the main takeaway from this article is that the 14 automatic bid qualifiers by winning your conference tournament remains intact. The NPI formula will then be applied to determine the final 5 at-large slots. There will no longer be allocations of those remaining bids toward independent schools.
How will this affect the team you root for? If you cheer for an independent team like Springfield, Cal Lutheran, or UCSC, it may mean a lot more as the competition just opened up for at-large bids and are not guaranteed for a cluster of independents. If your team does not win their respective conference tournament but your team is ranked in the top 10 in the NPI ranking calculation, it seems almost certain that you will get a bid. Many of the 14 conference winners are not traditionally in the top 20 overall rankings where weaker conference winners get a ticket, thus the remaining at-large bids will be allocated toward the top teams in the country who did not automatically qualify, whether independent or not.
Schedule strength is a major factor in the NPI as it is in InsideHitter’s algorithm. With most team schedules set at this point, most coaches in the country will need to have an open mind, patience and acceptance for the first-year implementation of this two-year pilot test rather than being in a position to better strategize their schedules to maximize NPI. The NPI will also be used to rank the final qualifiers and protect the top teams with first round byes.
The NCAA puts out several resources that better describe this change at a high level of detail. And yes, the NPI system and ranking formula is complex and dynamic. For those interested in the details surrounding NPI and the 2025 playoffs, the below resources are provided from the NCAA:
Excerpt from September NCAA Meeting:
August Meeting Excerpt:
NPI NCAA Power Index Weights, FAQ, and Guide: