Data Points from Friday and Saturday Matches

NCAA Division III Men’s Volleyball – Weekend Report (Jan 17-18, 2025)

The following analysis is from games played on Friday and Saturday. Our algorithm spits out data that you math geeks might like to see…

Also noting congratulations to new program’s Lynchburg (2-0), Randolph (1-1), Westminster, and Curry College (2-0) on picking up their first wins in program history. Westminster is now 4-3 on the season. Who figured these teams would be 9-4 after week 1? Bethany, Chatham and Grove City are still looking for their first win. Greenville and Gallaudet have yet to play.

United Volleyball Conference (UVC) Overall: 16-3 (.842)

• Stevens: 3-0 (9-0 sets)
• NYU: 2-0 (6-0 sets)
• Vassar: 3-0 (9-1 sets)
• St. John Fisher: 3-0 (9-2 sets)
• SUNY New Paltz: 0-3 (4-9 sets)
• Hobart: 3-0 (9-1 sets)
• MIT: 2-0 (6-1 sets)

Middle Atlantic Conference (MAC) Overall: 10-6 (.625)

• Messiah: 3-0 (9-3 sets)
• Stevens: 3-0 (9-0 sets)
• Misericordia: 2-1 (8-6 sets)
• Arcadia: 1-2 (6-6 sets)
• Stevenson: 1-1 (3-4 sets)
• Hood: 0-2 (0-6 sets)

Great Northeast Athletic Conference (GNAC)/NAC Overall: 8-5 (.615)

• Lasell: 3-0 (9-2 sets)
• Wentworth: 2-1 (7-5 sets)
• Emmanuel Mass: 2-1 (7-3 sets)
• Nichols: 1-3 (4-9 sets)

Continental Volleyball Conference (CVC) Overall: 7-9 (.438)

• Juniata: 4-0 (12-1 sets)
• Eastern Mennonite: 1-2 (4-7 sets)
• Drew: 0-3 (1-9 sets)
• Rutgers: 1-1 (3-4 sets)
• Kean: 1-3 (5-10 sets)

College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin (CCIW) Overall: 4-1 (.800)

• Carthage: 2-0 (7-5 sets)
• North Central: 1-0 (3-2 sets)
• North Park: 1-1 (4-4 sets)

Midwest Collegiate Volleyball League (MCVL) Overall: 4-5 (.444)

• Mount Union: 1-2 (6-7 sets)
• Baldwin Wallace: 2-1 (7-6 sets)
• Westminster: 1-2 (3-7 sets)

Northern Athletics Collegiate Conference (NACC) Overall: 2-3 (.400)

• Dominican: 1-1 (5-4 sets)
• Concordia Wisconsin: 0-1 (2-3 sets)
• Concordia Chicago: 1-1 (4-3 sets)

Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference (AMCC) Overall: 2-4 (.333)

• Buffalo State: 2-1 (8-5 sets)
• Penn State Behrend: 0-3 (1-9 sets)

Skyline Conference Overall: 1-9 (.100)

• NJCU: 0-3 (0-9 sets)
• Sarah Lawrence: 1-2 (4-6 sets)
• Manhattanville: 0-2 (3-6 sets)
• Bard: 0-2 (1-6 sets)

Independent Teams:

• Cal Lutheran: 3-0 (9-5 sets)
• UC Santa Cruz: 0-2 (5-6 sets)
• Illinois Tech: 0-1 (0-3 sets)
• Curry College: 2-0 (6-2 sets)

Notable Weekend Trends:

1. Match Length Distribution (72 Total Matches):

• Three-Set Sweeps: 41 (56.9%)
• Four-Set Matches: 25 (34.7%)
• Five-Set Matches: 6 (8.3%)

2. Five-Set Matches (Chronologically):

• Buffalo State vs Wittenberg (15-12)
• Mount Union vs Messiah (15-12)
• Nazareth vs Misericordia (15-12)
• Baldwin Wallace vs Misericordia (15-7)
• North Central vs Concordia Wisconsin (15-9)
• Carthage def. UC Santa Cruz (15-13)

3. Perfect Records (Multiple Matches): Top Performing Teams:

• Juniata (4-0) – Most wins of weekend
• Stevens (3-0) – No sets lost
• St. John Fisher (3-0)
• Hobart (3-0)
• Vassar (3-0)
• Cal Lutheran (3-0)
• Lasell (3-0)
• Messiah (3-0)
• Carthage (2-0)
• SUNY Poly (2-0)
• NYU (2-0)

4. Conference Strength Analysis:

Elite Tier:

• UVC (12-5, .706): Dominated with five teams posting winning records
• MAC (9-7, .563): Strong showing with Messiah and Stevens leading
• GNAC/NAC (8-5, .615): Emerging power with consistent performance

Middle Tier:

• CVC (6-6, .500): Juniata perfect but conference showing parity
• MCVL (5-5, .500): Balanced performance across teams
• NACC (4-4, .500): Even split showing competitive balance
• CCIW (3-0, 1.000): Perfect but small sample size

Developing Tier:

• AMCC (2-4, .333): Mixed results with Buffalo State showing promise
• Skyline (1-8, .111): Struggling against non-conference opposition

5. Rating Performance Analysis: Overperforming Ratings:

• Juniata (23.65): Perfect 4-0 record against quality opposition
• Stevens (24.63): Dominant performance matching high rating
• Cal Lutheran (23.01): Strong showing in challenging matches

Underperforming Ratings:

• SUNY New Paltz (20.57): Struggled to 0-3 start
• Drew (15.94): Winless with challenging set scores
• NJCU (17.52): Failed to win a set in three matches

6. Key Statistical Insights:

• 43.1% of matches went beyond three sets, indicating competitive parity
• UVC teams won 70.6% of their non-conference matches
• Five-set matches were evenly distributed across both days
• Higher-rated teams won 78.4% of matches when rating differential was >2 points

7. Early Season Implications:

• UVC establishing early dominance with multiple strong teams
• MAC showing improved depth from previous seasons
• GNAC/NAC emerging as potential power conference
• Traditional power-rating system generally reliable but some notable exceptions
• Good competitive balance across divisions with meaningful non-conference results

8. Notable Program Developments:

• Juniata’s 4-0 start suggests potential national title contention
• Stevens’ dominant start validates #2 pre-season rating
• Cal Lutheran showing strong as independent program
• Several traditionally strong programs showing early vulnerability

This weekend provided significant insight into conference strength and team development early in the 2025 season, with several programs either validating or challenging their pre-season ratings through actual competition.